Why Trumpism 2.0 has already failed
100 days into his second term, Donald Trump has proven unable to consolidate his agenda — or address the structural weaknesses that hamstrung his first
First off, today marks three months since I created this Substack. I’m incredibly grateful to the nearly 1,700 of you who have subscribed so far, and to everyone who has read, shared, or commented on these posts. I’m especially grateful to those of you who’ve taken out paid subscriptions: thanks to you, I have enough of those to keep writing and publishing regularly on here.
If you’ve been on the fence about upgrading to a paid subscription, I completely understand. These days, all of us are constantly inundated to subscribe to this or that — and giants like Netflix and Amazon are betting we’ll do so then forget so they can keep extracting the monthly tithes that keep them in business. Needless to say, I am not a corporate leviathan — just a guy who enjoys writing and after a decade plus of labour and effort is very fortunate to be able to do it for a living. Nonetheless, between doing my podcast, doing interviews, meeting commission deadlines, and various book projects, it’s an awful lot of work and, if you’re at all in a position to send me a few dollars every month you’d be helping to make it easier. There are various paid subscription options available and, if you take one out at the founder level, I’ll be delighted to send a signed copy of one of my books your way.
In any case, thanks so much for reading, and I hope you enjoy the following reflection on the first 100 days of Trump 2.0. Cheers.
In January, Donald Trump and his movement re-entered the corridors of power determined not to repeat past mistakes.
Since then, this terrifying conviction has given us a new Red Scare1 targeting elite universities and political dissidents. It has seen the liberal geopolitical order turned inside out, and the advent of a global trade war with no real precedent in history. It has yielded cruel, illegal deportations undertaken for the most sinister reasons in violation of essential constitutional rights. It has inspired a lacerating assault on both the regulatory state and key entitlement programs overseen by the richest man in the world.
In each of these areas, and in plenty of others as well, the second Trump administration has successfully caused wanton destruction, ruined countless lives, and inflicted damage that will be difficult to repair. In terms of blunt conviction, it has already clearly exceeded its first kick at the can. Trumpism 1.0, having never really expected to wield power to begin with, was unsure exactly what it wanted or needed to do, and the wider conservative movement was, in turn, unsure of how best to effectively make use of the opportunities Trump’s surprise victory afforded them. The result was that much of Trump’s supposed heterodoxy was quickly sanded down, ultimately leaving an administration more conventional than most — critics and zealots alike — had expected.2 Even handed a once-in-a-generation crisis to exploit in the form of the Coronavirus pandemic, the administration proved too lackadaisical and hamstrung by its allegiance to big business to consolidate a winning coalition and produce a lasting realignment.
Radicalized by its stint away from power, Trump and those around him seized upon their victory last November determined to do things differently. 100 days in, however, I’m increasingly of the view that Trumpism 2.0’s belligerent posture masks the very real symptoms of failure and ideological retrenchment that are already becoming apparent. Just as Trumpism Mark One came out swinging then fizzled, its successor increasingly seems destined to suffer a similar fate.
Trump’s trade war, perhaps the highest stakes part of his agenda, has already failed. Some tariffs, of course, remain in place. But many, beginning with those imposed on Canada and Mexico, were hastily paused or clawed back. Still more notably, Trump has climbed down from his 145% tariff on imports from China. And, while we don’t know exactly where any of the chips will ultimately fall here — vis a vis China or anywhere else — a clear pattern has emerged, here and elsewhere, that is almost certain to repeat itself.
In each case, the administration has taken a maximalist position only to quickly retreat from it and/or move the goalposts. Even with an agenda on hand and its priorities clear, it has proven unable to effectively weather political and economic fallout from its policies. Even knowing exactly what it wants to do, it remains too undisciplined and incoherent to actually do it.
Nowhere has this been more evident than in the case of Trump’s trade war, where wall to wall tariffs have hastily been abandoned for more selective ones, reimposed, then abandoned just as quickly. As this process has unfolded, the administration’s purported justification for tariffs has oscillated almost as frequently. Among other things, this constant shuffle has precipitated a hilarious dance from Trumpian media surrogates who, much like Trump’s own advisors, can’t seem to figure out if protectionism is a negotiating tactic or the harbinger of an entirely new economic order — and in neither case seems properly equipped to defend it anyway.
As a general rule, the reactionary right does not need to maintain rigorous discipline at all times to advance its agenda (phrases like “chaos is the point” can sound trite and cliche these days, but they still carry a ring of truth). What we are seeing play out in Trump’s trade war, however, is neither the kind of anarchic behaviour that can sometimes push the reactionary cause forward nor the ingenious game of 12-dimensional chess imagined by the dumbest MAGA chuds. From its absurd rollout to the cartoonishly crude formula used to calculate individual tariff percentages, the Trumpist trade offensive has been a masterful showcase of right wing incompetence.
It feels almost redundant to actually write, but you can’t remake the global economy if this is the level of thinking you’re operating with:
Since I created this Substack, I’ve written twice on the Trump administration. Back in February, I predicted that its trade war was ultimately going to expose some of the longstanding contradictions in the wider Trump project. Last month, I suggested that Trump was squandering much of his political capital on boutique right wing causes whose impact would either go unnoticed or dramatically weaken Trump’s popularity.
Both these things have since occurred.
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