Something's got to give
Mark Carney's electoral dominance is not a permanent state. The only question is how much longer Canada's post-2025 political dynamic can realistically sustain itself.
Nothing in politics is ever inevitable, but once a particular dynamic has solidified it can be tempting to see it as permanent.
Such has been the case since Mark Carney’s election victory a little over a year ago and, in poll after poll, Liberal fortunes have only seemed to rise further; the Conservatives gradually losing ground and the NDP mostly treading water. In short order, both in the sense of public psychology and the Liberal Party’s seat count in Parliament, the Carney era has seemed to consolidate itself as the new norm.
On a personal level, Carney himself has often looked politically unassailable: the cool and collected new face of elite managerial competence in an uncertain time; popular and politically ambidextrous enough to attract floor crossers from the Conservatives and the NDP alike. This popularity has been compounded by generally high approval ratings for the government itself and — as you can read here in this recent analysis from David Coletto — by the sense among some 47 percent of Canadians that the country is headed in the right direction (that figure representing a ten-year high). At various points, the Liberal Party has even looked poised to leapfrog the Tories in Alberta.
For the first time since April 2025, however, we are beginning to see at least a nascent shifting of the political winds.
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